The 2025 election results reinforce the sea change that has been occurring in Australia’s political landscape. Remarkably, this saw the Greens lose at least two seats in Brisbane. As of this writing, the party’s hopes of holding a third seat are all up in the air. The Coalition and Labor parties both faced steep odds. This was most evident in the increase of the “other” vote, which included significant support for minor parties and independents.
As well, the state election earlier this month was a huge blow to the Greens in Brisbane. This unexpected loss has raised questions about their future in the region. The party’s hold is declining. They lost two seats and now have to wait to see how close a third seat may be, if at all. Minor parties and independents have knocked it out of the park this cycle with 33.1 percent of the nationwide vote. This trend reflects both a massive change in regular party loyalties.
While the Greens were certainly dealt a few blows, the Coalition and Labor were unforgiving. They won each of the nine blue seats and all eight red seats, primarily through capitalizing on preference distributions. For one Democratic party, although both major parties achieved a major milestone. Their efforts were quickly overtaken by the swelling pro “other” primary/fusion support. Minor parties and independent candidates (the “other” vote) jumped up a few percentage points from the last 2022 election. Since the 2007 election, this often overlooked vote has more than tripled!
Outsiders, be they Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump, have significantly increased the size of the “other” vote historically. The stark change in voter sentiment over just a few decades is nothing short of remarkable. It’s almost eight times larger than it was back in 1975. This trend is indicative of a growing cohort of Australians who are tired of the major parties and hopeful for change.
Goldstein’s re-entry into the Liberal Party marks a full-circle moment in this election, three years later. This is yet another significant sign of the changing political tides. The country’s national electoral result for 2025 came just to the left of center, showing a very divided electorate.
The Greens’ losses in Brisbane are particularly concerning for the party’s leadership. And for the record, Andrew Wilkie’s seat of Clark would be one of the safest seats in the country. At the same time, Bob Katter and Helen Haines are winning reelection, in Kennedy and Indi respectively. These strongholds, above all, remind independents of one truth — even in turbulent political trends, some independent candidates can endure.
Adam Bandt’s victory set the stage for this election, although at the time he only narrowly won the primary vote and lost the seat. This result is a perfect illustration of the challenges for the Greens as they continue to try and fail to turn primary support into election wins.
The consequences of these election results go well beyond just those individual seats. With 24 districts reporting that minor parties and independents surpassed both Labor and Coalition in primary votes, it is clear that many voters are seeking alternatives to traditional party politics.
The grim tidings for the Greens does not stop there as their losses are extended to Brisbane. The party’s future efficacy in these regions will likely depend on their ability to adapt to this evolving political climate. As voters increasingly turn to minor parties and independents, the Greens must reassess their strategies to regain lost support.
