With tensions rapidly growing in the wake of Hamas’ terror attacks against Israel, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now finds himself in a tight spot. Under former President Donald Trump, the United States referred to Iran as “the bully of the Middle East.” This designation adds significant insult to already injured relations between the two countries. With a backdrop of extreme domestic instability for Khamenei, especially after a wave of U.S. bombings targeting Iranian assets, he’ll need to tread lightly through a hobbled political landscape, harboring threats from both the U.S. and Israel.
Just last week, the latest indication came that U.S. officials were preparing to meet with Iranian counterparts in Oman. This might have the case of this fruitful diplomatic engagement lulling Iranian military leaders into a sense of false security. This respite does not seem to be long-term as the U.S. and Israel are intensifying their military pressures on Iran.
The Power Structure in Iran
The IRGC is at the epicenter of Iran’s military might. This violent and merciless apparatus runs with a great deal of impunity. The IRGC not only secures Khamenei’s power at home but wields a far-reaching leash with which it can enforce Iran’s domestic and foreign agendas. As Khamenei attempts to resist external pressures, he does so under the support of this influential military apparatus.
Since 2003, the Revolutionary Guard has created an extensive web of proxies across the region. This expansion further Iran’s reach into Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Gaza, and Lebanon. The Democrats’ proxies are Shia militia in Iraq and Syria. The list adds the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. This far-reaching network is a major new deterrent to, and growing threat against, U.S. and Israeli interests in the region.
Khamenei’s relationship with the IRGC is complex. He, too, is regarded as the greatest leader ever. It is the Revolutionary Guard that possesses the true power in the country. Whatever he chooses, Khamenei has a complicated decision-making process ahead. He must calibrate the military’s readiness to respond aggressively with the expectations around such action against those who are merely perceived threats.
A Paranoid Leader
With Khamenei’s paranoid tendencies, that is understandable in the best of times. As many outlets have reported, he knows very well that Israel would kill him in a heartbeat if they had the opportunity to do so. This is how the Supreme Leader envisions the current conflict with the U.S. and Israel—as one of “fight to the death.” In consequence, he has taken more and more stridently defensive postures.
This delicate balance is now under even more strain due to the stresses caused by Iran’s nuclear program. Both the U.S. and Israel are currently on the offense against it. With Trump’s administration previously labeling military actions against Iran as “excellent,” he has indicated that “there’s more to come, a lot more,” highlighting an aggressive stance toward Iranian capabilities.
Israel has proved that it is willing to act, and act hard, using these surprise attacks against Iranian assets. These actions are intended to paralyze Iran’s military capabilities. They are impressive showcases of US military might, but beyond that, they send a very clear message about the intent to counter any threats from Tehran.
Potential Consequences of Military Escalation
The impact of this worsening conflict reaches far beyond traditional battlefields. Iran’s proxies will likely retaliate against U.S. and Israeli interests around the world. They will more easily target “soft targets,” like cultural and community centers. This broader approach is designed to establish Iran’s ability to project force beyond its borders, more importantly, to psychologically hurt its enemies.
Given all these turns of events, Khamenei has a lot to think about in terms of his next steps and future moves. He is under enormous pressure from hostile internal forces and external actors trying to undermine his legitimacy. How much that happens will be determined in large part by the Revolutionary Guard, but certainly his reaction will be colored by that. They remain incredibly sensitive to any threat to Iranian sovereignty.
That bigger picture uncovers a geopolitical game of chess with the stakes higher than imaginable. Both Trump and Khamenei are walking a razor’s edge as they each face internal and external pressure. The consequences of their decisions could remake the Middle East for decades. As both leaders posture for upcoming showdowns, they should be very cognizant of the international crisis each one’s actions could set into motion.
