The clock is ticking and the competition for seats in Tasmania’s Upper House is fierce. Sitting members Luke Edmunds and Meg Webb are likely to be reelected. As the election heats up, all eyes turn to the Montgomery seat. Leonie Hiscutt, Casey’s mother, resigned the seat.
In Hobart, Luke Edmunds, who represents Pembroke on Hobart’s eastern shore, has built up a monumental buffer in primary votes. All the analysts agree his outstanding performance has him ideally situated to hang on to his seat. Political commentator Kevin Bonham pointed out that Edmunds’ strong primary vote lead would almost certainly guarantee his re-election. He described the situation in Pembroke as stable for the incumbent, emphasizing the confidence in Edmunds’ ability to maintain his position.
Montgomery Seat Controversy
With the retirement of Leonie Hiscutt, her son, Casey Hiscutt, has a good shot at winning the Montgomery seat. In this competitive race so far, Casey Hiscutt has pulled in almost one-third (nearly 32 percent) of first-preference votes. He’s a solid incumbent, going up against the Liberal candidate Stephen Parry, who received 29 percent. Environmentalist green candidate Darren Briggs, at 21 percent of first-preference votes, is in a distant third.
Bonham reiterated that Parry has a very heavy lift ahead of her. In doing so, he will face the well-worn legacy of the powerful Hiscutt family name in Montgomery. According to Bonham, “The Liberals’ biggest obstacle in Montgomery is going up against the ‘Hiscutt family name.’” He concludes that Casey Hiscutt could pull off an upset victory – but only if Parry isn’t incredibly strong on the ballot with preference distributions.
Meg Webb’s Commanding Lead
And over in Nelson, Meg Webb has well and truly established her position, with 51 percent of first-preference votes giving her a clear majority. She has previously won “very convincingly,” providing a strong signal that she is very likely to be able to hang onto her seat with these primary votes alone. Kevin Bonham remarked that Webb’s performance reflects her strong support within the electorate, leading to expectations of an easy re-election.
With Webb and Edmunds seemingly safe in their seats moving forward, focus turns to Montgomery and what their victory could mean there. Should Casey Hiscutt get across the line, the number of independent members in the Upper House will increase dramatically. If they win this victory, it would make their ninth.
