Tasmania is preparing for a bitterly fought election on July 19 for control of parliament. Jeremy Rockliff’s administration could be the next to implode, after more than a decade of Liberal rule. The Liberal Party needs to lose at least 18 seats to ‘hold’ on the lower house’s unrepresentative swamp. The stakes couldn’t be higher for them. Bridget Archer, a party stalwart, has been recruited to distance the party from losses and support bluing efforts to improve their competitive eclectic odds.
Labor’s position would make the political situation more difficult. Greens reiterate exclusion deal with the Liberals Dean Winter, Liberal MP Dean Winters has been very clear about ruling out joining with the Greens to form government. This decision has the potential to sway voter opinion and electoral results between now and next November in a profound way.
The Electoral Dynamics
Yet under Tasmania’s electoral system, parties find themselves in a peculiar position. With each of the state’s five electorates returning seven members, a minimum of three seats per electorate is needed for a majority government. A fourth seat in three electorates is necessary, which usually requires winning more than 40 percent of the vote.
Today, the Liberal Party is in a more difficult situation. Getting over the line with one seat in each electorate would elevate them to 15 seats in parliament. They have an extremely heavy lift ahead of them to reclaim that elusive majority. The electoral system has tended to favour hung parliaments, further deepening the uncertainty around the election’s outcome.
Mr Rockliff should have resigned, forcing an alternative fellow Liberal member to try and form a minority government. His choice to stay in office indicates his determination to continue to lead during these difficult times, even as the pressure mounts.
The AFL Stadium Controversy
The biggest issue likely to shape the election will be the plan for a new AFL stadium. This project has been associated with Tasmania’s successful bid to receive the 19th AFL license. Yet voter enthusiasm for this new initiative seems tepid at best, leaving much uncertainty about 2024 state-level electoral outcomes and beyond.
Dean Winter has previously stressed the Labor Party’s dedication to the stadium marvel. He’s made no bones about the fact that this issue will be a foundational piece of their attack strategy heading into the campaign. These conflicting views on this one stadium project may be enough to tip the scale with undecided voters and will likely decide the entire election.
Key Changes and Challenges
This has been an extraordinary change in the political landscape, especially with Michelle O’Byrne’s announcement not to contest the next election. This leaves an enormous hole for the Labor Party. In the more liberal seat of Bass, she was a tremendous lightning rod for supporters. In reaction, Bridget Archer has already applied for preselection for this meaningful seat, one of the most important to change hands, from the state Liberal Party.
This amendment is indicative of the broader trends and conditions affecting the new political landscape of Tasmania. As parties gear up for the election, candidates will need to adapt their strategies to respond to voter concerns and capitalize on any perceived weaknesses in their opponents.
