The Tasmanian election is fast approaching. A recent YouGov poll signaled that shift in sentiment among voters, suggesting a possible hung parliament. City Wire Poll on Tax Increase July 7-18, 931 Voters Most notably, it shows just how deeply the American people are fed up with both major party presidential contenders. As it stands, these results currently have the Liberals winning 14 seats, Labor 10 seats and the Greens still at 5 seats. So, Jacqui Lambie Network will not contest this election, as they currently have 3 seats. This allows for 3 of the 7 total seats to be independent victories.
In the context of the emerging political paradigm, this election is a particularly crucial moment for Tasmania. Labor is ahead with a two-party preferred outcome of 55 percent. Meanwhile, the ruling Liberals are languishing at 45 percent, pointing to an expected incumbent defeat. These findings come with a margin of error of 3.2 percent. That indicates the result is still extremely up in the air.
Voter Dissatisfaction Drives Change
Paul Smith of YouGov, who conducted the polling, explains that those poll numbers indicate that voters are rightly outraged. Most importantly, they aren’t satisfied with their dictatorial leadership. He emphasized this sentiment by stating,
“Our poll shows that a minority government is absolutely certain in [Saturday’s] election.”
Both Jeremy Rockliff of the Liberals and Dean Winter of Labor sit on 40%+ disapproval. Winter isn’t far behind at minus 13, as the new Premier-in-Waiting Rockliff’s net satisfaction rating has yet to reach minus 19. Interestingly enough, voters say they’re more disappointed with Rockliff than they are with Winter. Yet, this trend seems to be creating the electoral landscape just as the demand for change reaches a fever pitch.
Smith also pointed out that there is “a clear undercurrent that voters want change.” Here’s hoping this hunger for a new direction triggers the emergence of a more formidable crossbench in the next parliament. Such a shift would transform the underlying incentives of governing in Tasmania.
Greens Make Gains
The YouGov poll continued the good news for the Greens. In fact, they are almost guaranteed to win even more seats in this election! Kevin Bonham, an electoral analyst, noted the strong results for the party and suggested that if trends hold, they could secure significant representation:
“It’s also quite a strong poll for the Greens: if it’s accurate, I would expect the Greens are a good chance at winning in Braddon and getting six seats [overall].”
The Greens’ expected strong performance could significantly increase their clout in a possible hung parliament situation. Given this environment, consensus-building will be key to moving strong bipartisan legislation.
Implications for Future Governance
The crosstabs of these polling results’ implications are incredibly deep and troubling for both major parties. If the Labor Party maintains its current lead in the polls, it will be awarded additional seats. This move would drastically upend the current power dynamics. Kevin Bonham further elaborated on the potential outcomes:
“If it ended up with 31 percent Liberal and 30 percent Labor, I would expect that the Liberals lose at least one seat, and Labor could gain one or two.”
Such shifts would be a challenge for governance generally, and particularly for the current Rockliff government. With frustration still piling on, a minority government looks more and more like the successful outcome.
