US Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby is urging defense officials from Japan and Australia to clarify their positions regarding a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. The push comes as geopolitical tensions continue to crank up in the Indo-Pacific region. This conundrum becomes more acute as the US finds itself reassessing military commitments and alliances. Colby’s efforts, reported by the Financial Times, highlight the urgency for allied nations to define their strategies in light of China’s increasing assertiveness.
These recent discussions are happening against the backdrop of a troubling policy shift, implemented by former President Donald Trump. First, he appeared to halt new arms shipment deliveries to Taiwan. Later, Trump admitted that he didn’t know about the suspension and assured deliveries would continue again. This decision grows out of concerns about the US’s need to defend its own defense stockpiles. Simultaneously, it needs to address Taiwan’s emerging military requirements.
Diplomatic Engagement and Economic Opportunities
As these military discussions unfold, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s upcoming trip to China aims to strengthen diplomatic ties. The hope is that this visit will be the start of changing Australia’s current, strained relationship with China for the better. We will shift from stabilization to stirring up more promising economic prospects.
Chalmers emphasized how alarming this tactic is. He argued that developing a cordial collaborative, even competitive, relationship with China would reap significant rewards for Australia’s economy. Albanese’s visit couldn’t be more timely. On the ground, the region is experiencing a resurgence of military activity, particularly with Exercise Talisman Sabre – a biennial war practice commanded by Australian and US forces.
This year’s Talisman Sabre exercises come at a dramatic inflection point for Australia. They overlap with rising concern over China. As Chinese officials noted, it’s since 2017 that Australia has been provoking China by surveilling these exercises.
“It would be unusual for them not to observe it.” – Pat Conroy
Military Exercises and Strategic Considerations
The Talisman Sabre exercises in action during 2021, military readiness on full display. They represent an important platform for intelligence gathering. Conroy expressed that by watching these exercises, China can learn a lot about the procedures and communication systems used in these operations.
“We’ll observe these exercises to collect intelligence around procedures, around the electronic spectrum and the use of communications, and we’ll adjust accordingly so that we manage that leakage.” – Pat Conroy
While Australia might be gearing up for yet another round of military exercises, Conroy reiterated that Australia’s approach to any future conflict has not changed. Furtive talk however Ian Hall of the Griffith Asia Institute moderated discussion of some hypotheticals. He was explicit that only the elected government has the power to commit Australia to military action.
“The sole power to commit Australia to war or to allow our territory to be used for a conflict is the elected government of the day. That is our position.” – Pat Conroy
Assessing AUKUS and Future Alliances
At a high level, the Australian government is very much out front in engaging with US officials. In Canberra, they are clearly hoping that the review of the AUKUS military pact will re-confirm its strategic significance. The review started by Trump’s administration is far from finished with deadlines fast approaching.
These discussions go beyond just military readiness. Beyond these efforts, the plans show a larger, overall strategy to push back against Chinese influence in the region. Observers point out that Australia’s recent moves align it more closely with the US and Japan. It will need to walk a fine line in its approach to China to avoid further stoking tensions.
Justin Wolfers, an economist, commented on the broader sentiment surrounding these geopolitical tensions:
“Part of me that’s an Australian finds the following very painful. The answer is nobody over here cares. But it’s not just Australia; in fact, that’s been the same disdain they’ve treated far larger economies.”
