India’s evolving diplomatic landscape is currently under severe stress as it deals with pragmatism in pursuing complex relationships with the United States and Russia. India has had, historically, a particularly contentious relationship with its western neighbour Pakistan, and to the north-east, India shares a contentious border with China. The complexities of these disputes have had a major impact on India’s foreign policy. Consequently, India’s hand is forced to walk a razor’s edge between competing global powers.
Recently, the United States did just that—imposed tariffs. They have raised costs for visa applicants, clearly an action reflecting a worsening policy towards India. This is a dramatic change from February. At the time, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had just visited US President Donald Trump at the White House, a sign of the partnership’s high point. US-China relations have soured so dramatically that India might find it necessary to rethink its historic close relationship with each country.
Historical Context and Current Challenges
India’s relationship with the United States has been fraught with tension since 1998, when the US imposed sanctions following India’s nuclear tests. Yet, even against such obstacles, their working relationship had been continuing to strengthen because of overlapping economic priorities and strategic objectives.
The recent geopolitical upheavals have put into question India’s non-aligned embrace. The US has accused India of indirectly funding Russia’s war on Ukraine through its purchase of discounted Russian crude oil, further complicating their relationship. As of June this year, Russia was India’s largest crude oil supplier, accounting for 44 percent of India’s imports. This underscores its deep reliance on its traditional partner-in-power.
“It has never chosen to join one partner and turn its back on the other. It has been navigating between them, and I think that in the current geopolitical environment this approach has been quite wise,” – Aleksei Zakharov.
India’s strategic autonomy allows it to defend its own dignity and independence in the world. This can be seen in its unwillingness to publicly support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, even under intense duress from Western countries.
Economic Pressures and Diplomatic Strain
Effective August 27, the United States will apply a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods. This decision only further heightens tensions between the two nations. This tariff is understood as a punishment meant to correct unfair trade imbalances. It risks upending economic ties that have been painstakingly cultivated over decades.
The recent spike in H-1B visa application fees disproportionately affects Indian citizens. They account for 90% of all applicants. These economic pressures might push India to rethink its diplomatic posture and to double down on its current partnerships.
“Either support the dollar, support the United States of America, support your biggest client, who’s the American consumer, or, I guess you’re going to pay a 50 percent tariff. And let’s see how long this lasts.”
New Delhi’s traditional alliance with Moscow that goes back more than seven decades remains anchored in defense cooperation and technology transfer. Russia continues to be India’s largest arms supplier, providing low equities deals without strict end-user constraints. Through this new partnership, creative collective development initiatives and joint production projects have been born. Jointly, they’re producing the Russian Kalashnikov AK-203 assault rifles and BrahMos supersonic cruise missile systems.
A Time-Tested Partnership with Russia
Under a Russian license, India is currently engaged in multi-year production of Su-30 fighter jets. This concert is a testament to the resiliency and creative power of their dynamic partnership. Zakharov noted:
India also demonstrated its dedication to its strategic independence by strengthening its ties with Russia. This decision has particularly interesting implications as global political stakes climb ever higher. Washington is right to be concerned about India’s growing reliance on Russian energy supplies. This should worry officials, particularly in the face of sanctions associated with the Ukraine war.
“Many Soviet origin and Russian origin tanks are produced in India on a licence, so the technology is Russian, but it’s produced in India as Indian equipment.”
Despite the escalating stakes of global politics, India has doubled down on its relationship with Russia, reflecting a commitment to its strategic autonomy. This has not gone unnoticed in Washington, where officials express concern over India’s growing reliance on Russian energy sources amid sanctions related to Ukraine.
“It’s counterproductive in terms of soft power and in terms of promoting the US image abroad in general,” – Zakharov.
