Western Australia is gearing up for a pivotal election on March 8, a political event that bears watching closely, not just for its state implications but also for any potential federal reverberations. With its unique voting pattern, Western Australia often stands apart from national trends, which makes its elections particularly intriguing. The upcoming contest will be crucial for the Liberal Party, which sees about a dozen seats in play, with Jandakot and Forrestfield being identified as key battlegrounds.
In 2021, Mark McGowan's popularity played a significant role in his re-election, securing 53 of the 59 lower house seats in the WA Parliament. This overwhelming support was credited with aiding Anthony Albanese's move into The Lodge in 2022. However, recent RedBridge research indicates a potential swing of approximately 12 percent towards the Liberal Party, hinting at a shift in voter sentiment. Political analysts are keen to see whether this change will manifest in the March election.
Key Seats and Potential Shifts
The Liberal Party, which suffered its worst result in 2017 by winning only 13 seats, is now looking to regain ground. The party was reduced to just two members in WA's lower house following the last election. Political observers are keeping a close watch on Jandakot and Forrestfield, considered litmus seats for the Liberals.
"Two of the litmus seats for us will be Jandakot and Forrestfield. They are electorates with a large population of self-described working-class and blue-collar [voters], also very much aspirational families in outer-suburban seats. How those voters respond in this state campaign might give us a bit of a look behind the curtain as to how they might respond in the federal campaign." – Martin Drum
These insights underscore the importance of these regions not only for state politics but as indicators of possible federal outcomes.
Balancing the WA Parliament
The 2021 election results skewed heavily in favor of McGowan's Labor Party, but the upcoming election is expected to return the WA Parliament towards a more balanced composition. With 59 lower house seats at stake, returning to equilibrium could signify a more representative parliament, mirroring the diverse political landscape of Western Australia.
Pollster Tony Barry from RedBridge will be paying close attention to state seats in outer Perth. These regions could offer valuable insights into voter behavior ahead of the federal poll. While the outcome is unlikely to mirror the dramatic 2021 results, any significant swings could foreshadow national trends.
Implications for Federal Politics
The Western Australian election holds more than just state significance; it could provide critical clues ahead of the next federal poll. Historically, voter behavior in Western Australia has not always aligned with national trends, but changes here might suggest shifts in broader public opinion. This possibility adds an extra layer of intrigue to the March election.
The potential consequences for the federal government are significant. Should the Liberal Party succeed in capturing key seats or improving its standing substantially, it might signal challenges for the federal Labor Party and potentially influence federal strategies moving forward.
