Australia’s National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), released by the federal government, paints a grim picture of the nation’s future in a warming world. The extensive report analyzes the potential impacts of climate change under four global warming scenarios, ranging from the current 1.2°C increase to a concerning 3°C rise. Hundreds of climate scientists, policymakers, and experts from around the world collaborated on this in-depth assessment. Their work concluded with an in-depth analysis of the climate change impacts and threats to several sectors in Australia including national security, food production, and health care infrastructure.
Their statement underscores some very disturbing trends in Australia. They estimate that an increase of 3.0°C in mean temperature will result in a doubling of heat-related deaths. The report emphasizes that climate change is not a distant threat; it is already affecting people’s health, particularly in disadvantaged communities. As the climate warms, Australia can expect to face worsening droughts, rising sea levels, and increasingly severe heatwaves and floods.
Impacts of Climate Change on Health and Economy
Together with the NCRA, we sound the alarm on how increasing temperatures will deeply affect public health. In particular, heat-related illnesses and mortality are projected to increase markedly. Further, climate change will have a disproportionate impact on the most vulnerable populations, worsening current health disparities, the report continues.
The economic cost of climate-related disasters is mind-boggling. In 2020 alone, these catastrophes drained Australia of an estimated $38 billion. The NCRA projects that this number can skyrocket to at least $73 billion a year by 2060. The report sounded an alarm about future wealth loss. If we don’t act boldly, we may be faced with lost agricultural and labor productivity jumping from more than $19 billion by 2030 to an unbelievable $4.2 trillion by 2100.
“The report is a reminder, if we needed one ever that the cost of inaction always outweighs the cost of action.” – Chris Bowen
These results highlight the critical need for Australia to change focus in disaster management and economic planning. The NCRA’s risk assessments are now valuable resources in pinpointing future hazards and their anticipated costs.
Addressing Vulnerability and Preparedness
For the very first time, the National Climate Risk Assessment uses models projecting three separate warming scenarios out to the end of the century. It uses data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). From this data, it creates important indices such as the Australia Climate Social Vulnerability Index and the Industry Employment Diversity Index.
These broad indices can only begin to show how climate change is impacting real health outcomes, specifically the most extreme in marginalized communities. As climate change drives up temperatures, those conditions are getting worse. This trend will surely widen gaps in health access and outcomes, further straining our public health infrastructure.
Kamal Kishore is the director of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). He underscores the importance of these assessments to inform future disaster risk management.
“These climate risk assessments are an integral part of how we are going to do disaster risk management planning for the future.” – Kamal Kishore
By integrating risk reduction into infrastructure development and community planning, Australia can better prepare for the escalating dangers posed by climate change.
The Call for Action and Global Context
Australia’s federal government is facing mounting pressure to speed up its climate risk assessment stakeholders. Innovations mentioned above have already put Australia well behind other developed countries such as the UK, US, Canada, New Zealand and Germany. Critics are growing more bold to decry the country’s abysmal response to climate risk.
As Kishore notes, international examples abound of countries that are getting ahead of the curve on climate adaptation. For examples, he points to India’s heat action plans, developed within the last 10 years.
“For example, in India now more than 100 cities have heat action plans … it is completely different from how things were just 10 years ago.” – Kamal Kishore
As the NCRA, we urge Australia to stop playing small and think big. If it doesn’t, current vulnerabilities will be exacerbated, causing a cascading effect as the years go on. Chris Bowen recently pointed out that the compounding effects of climate change will start to form a vicious cycle of increasingly bad conditions.
“Cascading — it will get worse over time.” – Chris Bowen
Experts are calling on the Australian government to urgently invest in assessments of realized losses and future risk. By investing in these strong evaluations, Australia can avoid some hair-raising outcomes.
“If you don’t measure it, you’re not going to be able to make a robust case for how much to invest towards what level of risk reduction.” – Kamal Kishore
