Australia’s winter outlook for 2024 is starting to look very interesting. The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is currently predicting below average rainfall for much of the country from June to August. According to Dr. Karl Braganza, senior climatologist at BOM, a handful of vigorous cold fronts and accompanying storms is enough to turn around the entire season. As he explained, warm winters have increasingly gone up over the past several decades.
The BOM’s forecasts have proven accurate even amidst the current dry spell gripping much of southern Australia. These conditions prompt questions about an unprecedented uptick in fire danger this winter. As southern states struggle with a record-breaking drought, soil is extremely dry, and very much so in western Victoria.
Alongside these worrying longer-term patterns, there is something to get your hopes up about, with above-average precipitation expected from July-September. The Indian Ocean Dipole, like El Niño and La Niña, is one of the most important climate drivers in the world. Over the next few months, it’s likely to transition into its wet phase, potentially increasing rainfall odds.
Rainfall and Temperature Predictions
According to this season’s outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the whole of Australia has a high chance of having warmer-than-normal daytime and overnight temperatures this summer. Dr. Braganza clarified that “the dice aren’t particularly loaded over the next three months for either wetter or drier conditions.” This last phrase is indicative of the doubt still persistent about the winter outlook.
Warm winters have been an extreme trend in Australia in recent years. Since 2010, nine of the 10 warmest winters on record have occurred. Last year’s unprecedented record warmth really drove home this trend. It also delivered a few days featuring frigid temperatures well below freezing, emphasizing the degree to which this warming has been uneven.
Dr. Braganza emphasized that the influence of warm ocean temperatures is significant, stating, “So those warm oceans are having an influence on the east of the continent, and they’re having an influence over the north-west and inland parts of the continent as they bring moisture over the mainland.” This moisture inflow could deliver important, life-giving precipitation just in time for planting crops.
Agricultural Concerns Amid Dry Conditions
Farmers are especially concerned right now that these dry conditions will lead to a decline in their crop yields. Martin Colbert, a local farmer, expressed urgent needs for rainfall, stating, “We need above-average rainfall immediately just to get the crop to start.” He highlighted that without sufficient moisture before spring, the situation could worsen drastically. “If we get sub-average rainfall before spring, things will be so poor that, while rain will be nice, it won’t save us.”
As farmers assess their prospects for the growing season, Chiara Holgate, another agricultural expert, pointed out how crucial additional rainy days can be for determining whether a year will be deemed wet or dry: “So if there’s 10 extra days compared to normal of those higher rain days, we can expect it would be a wet year. If we didn’t get those 10 or so heavy rain days, then that region would be at risk of entering drought.”
With these future threats on the horizon, farmers are left on edge while they try to harvest and prepare for winter.
Fire Risk and Climate Change Impacts
Authorities have said that a greatly heightened fire risk is affecting much of South Australia and now Victoria this winter. It’s the current extreme drought that has generated these emergency notifications. Dr. Braganza noted that typically during this time of year, there are not usually “really high temperatures, low humidity and wind speeds that cause a fire to rapidly spread.” He warned that emerging climate change could alter these behaviors.
Warmer temperatures and dry, cracked soil all combine to create an especially dangerous fire hazard. Communities and public officials, as a corollary, are understandably disheartened and on high alert. The BOM’s long-range forecast has offered few answers for areas that rely heavily on winter rainfall. As a consequence, millions of Americans are left hanging as to what their farming future holds.
As winter settles in, most Australians are yearning for a change in weather patterns. This new cohort are still facing the harsher realities of a rapidly changing climate and what it means going forward.
