Just as the geopolitical dynamics are changing, Antarctica is just beyond the major powers’ backyard. They are hungry to widen their share of power in this strategic region. Russia has significantly increased its presence by modernizing current stations, re-opening closed facilities and building a whole new runway. Concurrently, China has solidified its position with five permanent research stations and plans for a sixth, positioning itself as a significant player in Antarctic research. These changes have alarmed other countries as to what they mean for the US’s commitment to protecting the environment and working with foreign partners.
Unfortunately in recent months we have seen allegations rise against both Russia and China for undermining those same efforts. These countries are allegedly preventing consensus on critical programs. Yet they’re currently holding up progress to create new marine parks and regulate krill fisheries, which are crucial to Antarctic ecosystems. This alarming trend undermines the cooperative spirit that has characterized all international engagement in Antarctica. This cooperative spirit has existed since the signing of the Antarctic Treaty in 1959.
The United States has a long, successful, and proud history of leadership in Antarctic research. It has recently scaled back its diplomatic footprint across the region. At a recent such meeting, in Milan, the U.S. sent an especially small delegation, writing just one paper. These actions are consistent with deep cuts to funding for the National Science Foundation’s Antarctic program. Indeed, under the Trump administration, this funding is scheduled to decrease by 55 percent in the fiscal year 2026.
Geopolitical Maneuvering
Russia’s increasing footprint in Antarctica represents a larger trend of Moscow spreading its influence to the globe’s most remote corners. Research stations are being rehabilitated, and a new research runway is being constructed. These steps are early signs of deeply rooted intention to gain a more long-lasting occupancy. China’s ambitions During the past year, this expansion has matched China’s own ambitions, to establish itself as a scientific powerhouse in the Indo-Pacific.
China’s achievements in Antarctic research are noteworthy. In doing so, it has passed the United States in the number of annual research papers published on Antarctica. This advance is emblematic of China’s growing investment in scientific pursuits and their ability to influence which policies will shape the continent’s future.
Professor Matt King, director of the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, expressed his concerns. He noted the weighty implications of this change. He stated, “A lot of nations are sort of going backwards just at a time when we really need to advance our understanding of Antarctica.” This feeling speaks to the need for continued, cooperative strides to combat these international climate shifts that are taking a toll on Antarctica.
These continued actions by Russia and China have caused great concern over the potential effect on current conservation efforts. The Antarctic Treaty bars military activity and promotes international collaboration on science. The increasingly aggressive postures of these countries may soon begin to threaten the treaty’s foundational premises.
Conservation Challenges
It’s most revealing that Russia and China have come under withering fire for their actions. Millions more are concerned about how these actions jeopardize efforts to protect our oceans. Both countries have been accused of stabbing in the back important efforts to create new marine parks and regulate krill fisheries. These steps are necessary not just for the enforcement of laws and treaties, but for the protection of Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecological integrity.
Professor Delphine Lannuzel, leading the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, emphasized the importance of protecting Antarctica as “a pristine region that needs to be protected.” Underneath this sanguine outlook lies a deepening concern. Our geopolitical rivalries must not overwhelm our commitment to environmental protections, placing one of the planet’s last pristine ecosystems in peril of irreversible harm.
Evan Bloom, a former U.S. diplomat with extensive experience in Antarctic policy, remarked on the importance of diplomatic engagement amid these tensions. He noted, “So I think it’s important for Australia and other friends of the US to be talking to their counterparts and through diplomatic channels to try to explain the important role the Antarctic Treaty plays now.” His remarks illustrate the need for constant communications between countries so that collaborative structures can be adaptive and responsive.
The Future of U.S. Involvement
The American future in Antarctic affairs seems dark indeed. Huge, proposed funding cuts have now, once again, threatened the National Science Foundation’s entire budget. As Professor Jeff McGee noted, a retreat of U.S. Antarctic science and logistics capacity might provide other countries a chance to play a bigger role. They may be the ones to ride in and save the day. He stated, “They’re a close partner of ours in Antarctica, both in a logistics and science sense and a diplomatic sense.”
Nonetheless, looking ahead, there is cause for optimism when it comes to shaping U.S. policy toward Antarctica with the current administration. Bloom remarked, “I think the Trump administration is not known for necessarily listening well to other countries, but I think that there are opportunities at this point to influence where it will land on a number of these policies.”
High-quality, science-informed policies for Antarctica won’t happen overnight. This definitely signals that these issues will not be a high priority on the White House agenda. Bloom commented on this delay, saying, “There wasn’t a lot of change in terms of the basics of Antarctic policy — support for science or support for marine protection.”
