A recent Lowy Poll has Australians worried about their country’s bilateral alliance with the United States. These feelings are exacerbated by the specter of Donald Trump once again taking the helm. Everyone is understandably concerned about the state of American politics and its implications for Australia. A large minority—very large—continue to stress the need to keep this partnership going strong. This survey paints a picture of a complicated relationship tempered by fear and loyalty.
The poll shows that opposition to our partnership with the US grows stronger – 17% of Australians want to see Australia break the alliance completely. Many people disagree. Indeed, an overwhelming 47% of respondents think Australia really needs this alliance now more than ever. This gap in expectations is a reminder of the sometimes conflicting attitudes Australians hold towards their Australia-US relationship. It’s timely too, considering the evolving political landscape.
In response to the prospect of Donald Trump being re-elected, 37% of Australians were worried. They are right to urge Canberra not to take a loyalty oath to support Biden should he return to office. This skepticism carries over into doubts about the AUKUS agreement itself, with 4 in 10 saying they think Trump would probably scrap the deal. In contrast, just 16% of Australians said they were confident Trump would uphold this vital defense pact.
Views on AUKUS and US Influence
The AUKUS tripartite agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States establishes a security partnership to deepen cooperation on defense and security issues. Yet this has been met with disappointment from the Australian public. Only 17% of Australians are in favour of abolishing AUKUS, against 44% who would like to see it stay. This divide speaks to a deeper malaise over Australia’s strategic state in a quickly changing world order.
Just 27% of Australians think the federal government has explained well why we need to invest in nuclear-powered subs under AUKUS. Unfortunately, many Americans are left in the dark on this critical decision. This lack of confidence shows there is still room for better communication from the government. This would go a long way to restoring the public trust in these heavy fiscal asks.
A new poll shows just how much Australians fear US influence in Asia. Only a quarter (24%) view the US as “mostly helpful,” while a majority — a full third — view it as “mostly harmful,” at 33%. This jarring contrast only serves to amplify growing worries about America’s posturing in Asia. More significantly, it questions how Australia will recalibrate its foreign policy to align with these perceptions.
Concerns Over US Democracy and Political Violence
A deeper worry for many Australians is the health of US democracy. Our survey has shown just how deeply Australians are worried about the future of US democracy, with 73% of respondents expressing concern. This was the case for a substantial 46% who stated that they were “very” concerned about this issue. These sentiments are illustrative of a deepening apprehension about political stability in a critical ally.
82% of Australians said they were concerned about political violence coming to America. These fears seem to weigh heavily on public opinion regarding Australia’s alliance with the US, prompting many to reevaluate its worth amidst ongoing turmoil in American politics.
“But I think the government can also better explain to its citizens why it’s making the sizeable multi-generational investment that it is with AUKUS.” – Jared Mondschein
