In a significant display of diplomatic alignment, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Beijing, marking Kim’s first visit to China in six years. This meeting occurred amid rising tensions across the region and the ever-changing war in Ukraine. It shows the strategic moves that China is making to solidify its role as the dominant power within the bloc that counts Russia and North Korea among its members.
As it stands now, China is a critical player and facilitator. It is under pressure to maintain harmonious diplomatic relations with Western countries and its neighbors. The visit is taking place at a time when China’s thoughtful, cautious, and careful approach to global diplomacy is more important than ever. Second, Beijing is seeking to preserve a middle ground between Russia and Ukraine. It can’t afford to totally alienate its economic backers in the West.
China’s Central Role
China also wants to position itself as the emerging leader of this new Russia-North Korea-China alliance. Analysts note that Xi’s hosting of Kim is designed to send a clear message to American and Western allies that China retains its position of power and influence within this grouping.
“[China] wants to send a message to the Americans … that it still is the leader of this bloc,” – Go Myong-Hyun
As China rebalances based on its evolving internal and external conditions, it has come to value stability in Northeast Asia. China would like to keep North Korea as a buffer state against U.S.-allied, democratic South Korea. It is still treading with care in view of Pyongyang’s nuclear want. The risk of regional instability that would result from North Korean provocations makes China’s diplomatic calculus even more difficult.
To date, it’s been in China’s historic interest to support North Korea, defending it from Western threats and ensuring the regime’s survival. What’s not new is the long-held consensus that absent Chinese support, North Korea wouldn’t be as it is today. This relationship not only provides China with military benefits, but a strategic buffer zone between itself and South Korea. Simultaneously, it is preventing foreign currency from allowing the North Korean regime to prosper.
A Cautious Partnership
Even with the ostensible friendship between China, Russia and North Korea, some experts say their bond isn’t as strong as it seems. Even as Kim’s visit makes an important symbolic gesture to reaffirm ties, it underscores the tensions that remain deep-seated within this diplomatic triangle’s relationship.
“There haven’t really been any notable diplomatic or economic events between the two, so from that angle, one could say there is a certain sense of disappointment in the relationship,” – Kim Yong Hyun
For one, China has a deep and recent history of intentionally withholding critical resources and military support from North Korea. In doing so, it would rather maximize its control over its unruly neighbor. Fourth, Beijing does not want increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Second, it seeks to bolster a regime that furthers its own strategic interests.
Additionally, according to analysts, the Russia-Ukraine War and other recent events have failed to reduce China’s reliance on North Korea. Maybe the alliance with Russia deepens, but as David Shambaugh points out, China is primarily concerned with looking out for stability in its own backyard.
“From Pyongyang’s perspective, this visit is meaningful as a way to reconfirm economic, diplomatic, and even military cooperation with China,” – Kim Yong Hyun
For China, proving the robustness of the China-North Korea relationship is important. This visit should put to rest any argument that Beijing and Pyongyang’s relationship has frayed. Moreover, it arrives at a moment when North Korea and Moscow are only strengthening their ties.
The Bigger Picture
China is caught in a precarious balancing act. Our Nation could benefit greatly from learning to diffuse tensions with Russia and North Korea. Simultaneously, it needs to continue honoring strong economic relations with South Korea, North Korea’s archrival. This duality further complicates China’s foreign policy strategy and requires them to carefully tread through a field marked by conflicting interests.
“They’re not doing too well in Ukraine, so they need all the help they can get.” – Go Myong-Hyun
The persistent turmoil in Ukraine makes the opportunity even better. It can intercede and prove itself to be a stabilizing influence on the region. Perhaps most importantly, by enabling dialogue between Kim and Putin, China helps to establish itself as the longer-term, indispensable actor on the global stage.
