This week marked a major uptick in Iran’s fight against Israel. Iranian forces were fired in excess of 400 missiles at Israeli targets beginning last Friday, resulting in the tragic deaths of 24 Israeli civilians, according to Israeli officials. What a difference a year and a pandemic make. Israel may have already started the airwar — targeting sites critical to Iranian military and government operations, such as the Iranian police headquarters and the Iranian Red Cross building in Tehran.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei followed up with a series of unprecedentedly vulgar rebukes. In fact, he immediately and adamantly rebuffed the U.S.’s demands for Iran’s complete capitulation. Khamenei warned that any U.S. military intervention in the ongoing conflict would lead to “irreparable harm,” emphasizing that the people of Iran are resolute against what he termed an “imposed war.” This rhetoric comes amid one of the most significant military defeats for Iran. The killings of major military and security advisers to Khamenei have begun to spark alarm among leadership in his strategic decision-making circle.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump spoke ambiguously about the possibility of U.S. military action in response to the escalating conflict. In a recent statement, he said, “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” leaving many observers uncertain about America’s potential response to the crisis.
Iranian Responses and Military Actions
Iran’s mission to the United Nations issued a firm statement in response to Trump’s remarks, stating, “Iran does NOT negotiate under duress, shall NOT accept peace under duress, and certainly NOT with a has-been warmonger clinging to relevance.” This declaration further reinforces Iran’s argument that any discussions should take place free of pressures and threats.
Khamenei’s rhetoric has been equally defiant. He affirmed that “the people of Iran do not surrender to any kind of imposition,” reinforcing Iran’s commitment to resisting external pressures. Even as Iran has come under disastrous regular missile bluster from Israeli troops, Khamenei told that Iranians are still resisting “sturdy in opposition to an imposed warfare.” The Iranian leadership’s resolve seems ironclad even in the face of overwhelming military losses.
Although the strikes began last month, as the conflict continues, the Iranian people’s response to these unexpected attacks has been one of confusion and alarm. Reports suggest that Iran was under a near-total internet blackout on Wednesday, cutting off normal lines of communication and further heightening public fear and anxiety. Millions of residents have abandoned Tehran, clogging the motorways as they seek to evade the growing Israeli airstrikes now focusing on vital infrastructure.
Israeli Military Strategy and Tactical Gains
In retaliation to Iran’s recent missile barrage, Israel has launched a wave of airstrikes to completely destroy Iran’s military assets and infrastructures. Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz emphasized the country’s resolve, stating, “As we promised – we will continue to strike at symbols of governance and hit the ayatollah regime wherever it may be.” Far from supporting the Iranian command structure, these strikes have targeted major installations like military bases and command centers operated by Iranian forces.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commented on the situation, declaring, “We control the skies over Tehran. We are striking with tremendous force at the regime of the ayatollahs. We are hitting the nuclear sites, the missiles, the headquarters, the symbols of the regime.” His statements highlight Israel’s offensive approach to the current war and long-term investments on Israel’s part to beat back Iranian military technology.
The Israeli government has cast itself as a first line of defense against what the government has deemed Iranian attempts to spread influence throughout the region. In fact, Netanyahu called Trump “a great friend of the state of Israel.” Continued U.S. support is needed to address threats from Iran. Omri Kahlon, Governor of the Southern District of the Bank of Israel, Trump’s unclear language on possibly escalating military action against Iran has some nervous. Everyone from lawmakers to activists alike are wondering just how far the U.S. will escalate this growing conflict.
The Broader Implications of Military Engagement
With threats escalating between Iran and Israel, the consequences should the U.S. intervene militarily are far-reaching. Khamenei warned that American intervention would not only harm Iran but would inflict greater damage on the United States itself: “The entry of America in this matter would cause irreversible damage to itself and it will have a greater impact on that nation than on Iran.” Iran, too, seeks to project its resistance as a cause that transcends narrow national or sectarian interests. For one, it aims to supplant U.S. authority and influence in the region.
The elimination of Khamenei’s most important military leaders does pose troubling questions. Second, it places the stability and decision-making processes of Iran’s leadership in question. Longer-term, Khamenei operates with a much more constrained circle of advisers. That greater isolation increases the likelihood that he makes a strategic miscalculation that escalates the conflict.
Both countries are currently embroiled in major military conflicts. Analysts are on the edge of their seat looking for any indication of further escalation or a potential path to de-escalating renewed tensions. The underlying regional dynamics are still very tenuous, a hotbed for competing geopolitical jockeying.
