In just the last few years, India and Pakistan have ratcheted up their military capabilities, especially with regard to drone use. This latest move comes amid growing tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Since India and Pakistan’s last nuclear tests in 1998, the two countries have faced off in several wars and skirmishes. India has looked to Israel for the provision of advanced combat-capable drones. At the same time, Pakistan is improving the quality of its aerial fleet by introducing some advanced technology from Turkey and China.
India’s recent long-endurance Heron MK2 drones acquisition from Israel is strategically important development in providing India the negotiation power to conduct deep strikes across LAC. These sophisticated long-range drones are equipped to carry out complex missions, enabling India to strengthen its counter-surveillance as well as combat capabilities. Pakistan has introduced higher-tech aerial drones, including Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci models into its inventory. The Bayraktar TB2 has entered popular consciousness after its dramatic success in the current Ukraine-Russia war.
Recent Developments in Drone Technology
On Thursday, tempers flared even further after Pakistan accused India of violating its airspace, prompting the Pakistani military to shoot down twelve Indian drones. The official Pakistani military spokesperson, Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, was quick to acknowledge the incidents, further highlighting the volatile hostilities that are plaguing the two countries. India, for its part, seems to be moving quickly by sending its Israeli Harop drones in all directions. This includes the largest Pakistani urban areas like mega Karachi and Lahore.
“Every single attack has shown that there are these kinds of red lines that both sides draw.” – ABC/wires
India’s military modernization efforts include a robust fleet of approximately 730 combat-capable aircraft, complemented by a significant number of drones. The Indian defense ministry has bought new high-end weaponry to solidify their might. This is in addition to the Russian S-400 mobile anti-aircraft missile system, an effective counter to weaknesses revealed by the 2019 dogfight.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has a smaller but still substantial aerial capability, with around 450 aircraft. When all this is said and done, they do have very sophisticated drones sold by foreign allies. Remarkably, more than 81 percent of Pakistan’s arms and materiel are imported from China, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute notes.
Strategic Implications of Military Upgrades
Neither country has completely escaped a strategic bind for their military introductions. For India, balancing its resources between potential conflicts with Pakistan and guarding against threats from China poses a significant challenge.
“For India, there is the dilemma of how many air squadrons to commit to the Pakistan front, as it must also guard against China.” – Mr. Faisal
Each country believes it is more well-prepared than they were in earlier wars. Military experts are cautioning that the crisis is far from over. Both countries have since produced missiles specifically designed to eliminate the other’s nuclear facilities. This security dilemma is further complicating an already contentious landscape of regional security.
“It could be a contest between Western and Chinese technology.” – Mr. Faisal
Although both countries have fought limited wars since they each acquired a nuclear arsenal, experts warn that the risk of miscalculation still exists. Each side celebrates its own military developments. They’ve been there enough to know that pushing the current situation to the point of nuclear warfare is unacceptable.
“Even after the two countries went nuclear in 1998, they have engaged in multiple conflicts but have always been limited in nature.” – ABC/wires
Future Outlook
The continuous arms race between India and Pakistan represents a larger geopolitical conflict in South Asia. Both countries are increasing their military readiness. So many analysts have cautioned that this dangerous escalation will preclude any chance of winning the hearts and minds of the people of Jammu and Kashmir with superior firepower.
“So there’s really not a way to resolve the underlying issue of Jammu and Kashmir by force.” – Marcus Hellyer from Strategic Analysis Australia
The introduction of state-of-the-art drone technology has tipped the strategic balance between the two countries. Jets enable both sides to launch missiles simultaneously across borders, potentially overwhelming air defenses and changing the dynamics of future engagements.
“Jets allow you to send missiles simultaneously across the border and overwhelm air defenses.” – Mr. Faisal
With tensions mounting and military capabilities rapidly developing, the region finds itself at a critical juncture. On neither side is there any agreement — or even acknowledgment — about which side has the upper hand. Yet, it is on the battlefield where the real strengths and weaknesses of their military gains will be realized through combat.
“Each side will think they are in a better position than last time. It is only when we see actual combat that we will find out.” – Mr. Faisal
