Min Aung Hlaing, the head of Myanmar’s military junta, has retained his position as acting president. This is true even despite the ostensible transition to civilian rule. His administration is under heavy fire for their disastrous handling of the still-present civil war and related governance issues. Today, they are preparing for those same elections—elections that most international observers still describe as a sham. As international pressure builds—especially from China and India—more legitimacy and inclusion raise the question of whether such elections are truly democratic.
In recent meetings with prominent global leaders including China’s Xi Jinping and India’s Narendra Modi, Min Aung Hlaing has attempted to project an image of stability and governance. He asserts that the next February’s elections will bring peace. His administration is still facing dire charges of systemic human rights abuses and gross mismanagement.
For all the junta’s boasts of building a peaceful Myanmar, the country is deeply divided and riddled with conflict. The military currently controls less than 40 percent of the country. In that time, de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been tried and imprisoned under the military regime since the 2021 coup. Analysts have cautioned that the elections guarantee a quarter of parliamentary seats for military appointees. They fear that this arrangement will make sure that no substantive change happens at all.
International Concerns Over Legitimacy
The international community has been raising increasing alarm over the legitimacy of the elections set to take place in Myanmar. Australia, along with other countries, has expressed doubt that the junta will hold credible elections. A spokesperson from Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade stated, “Elections held without these essential steps risk greater instability.”
The statement underscores fears that the elections may serve merely as a façade for the continued military dominance in Myanmar. Advocates contend that the elections process cannot be considered democratic without the full participation of all relevant actors. This includes key leaders, including political prisoners such as Aung San Suu Kyi.
Wai Wai Nu — a leading human rights activist and former political prisoner — called the elections a “trap.” She underscored the importance of releasing political prisoners. She further argued that open participation must be allowed first, before any real electoral democracy can take place.
“You cannot call it an election while thousands of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi and other elected leaders, remain behind bars.” – Koko Aung
Increasingly, international observers fear the junta is going through the motions of using an election to maintain its grip on power. They believe that this is not a true step toward democracy. Richard Horsey, an analyst on Myanmar for the International Crisis Group, added that given existing conditions, it doesn’t make sense to call such a process democratic.
“That just makes any attempts to pass this off as any kind of genuine popular consultation exercise just ludicrous.” – Richard Horsey
Min Aung Hlaing’s Strategic Alliances
Min Aung Hlaing’s recent diplomatic engagements with influential leaders, such as Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi, highlight his strategy to bolster support amid increasing international isolation. After all, China would much rather deal with a freely elected administration than a coup-installed regime. This preference at least partly accounts for its willingness to receive favorably the very first recognition of the forthcoming elections.
The Chinese government has historically supported Min Aung Hlaing’s regime, especially during times when it appeared on the brink of collapse. This support demonstrates not only a desire to counteract geopolitical foes but an understanding that providing stability is part of a larger strategy. Beijing’s support has given Min Aung Hlaing a vital lifeline as he walks the tightrope between domestic and global pressure.
India’s Foreign Minister Narendra Modi has expressed hope that the elections in Myanmar will be conducted “in a fair and inclusive manner involving all stakeholders.” Serious doubts persist about whether the promise of Sen.
The junta’s persistent grip on power raises questions about whether these alliances can lead to any meaningful change in governance or peace within Myanmar. Analysts warn that without addressing fundamental issues such as human rights abuses and political freedom, these diplomatic efforts may ultimately be in vain.
The Domestic Landscape and Future Outlook
Within Myanmar, popular opinion on Min Aung Hlaing as de facto leader is clearly adverse. The regime’s response has been to indiscriminately bomb civilian homes and infrastructure, deepening an already catastrophic humanitarian situation. According to international organizations’ recent accounts, ordinary citizens are still facing violence while being deprived of basic necessities as the civil war carries on.
Min Aung Hlaing has been touting the upcoming elections as a path to peace. Opponents argue that a look at his administration’s record so far paints a different picture. In doing so, the military still maintains its chokehold over areas of governance and government operations, but not over what the citizenry now urgently needs.
Koko Aung articulated the prevailing sentiment among many citizens: “Until they are free and parties can participate openly, this is not democracy. It is theatre for the generals.” This frame reinforces an important myth. People know that true political reform, not just token electoral circuses, is what will finally win them real change.
