Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto made headlines this week. He decided to cancel his participation at the G7 meeting in Canada and go instead to the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, or as it’s sometimes called “Russia’s Davos”. His decision has surprised Western capitals in equal measure and ignited debate over the future direction of Indonesia’s foreign policy.
Subianto’s attendance at the forum is seen as a significant move, especially given Indonesia’s status as the largest economy in Southeast Asia. During his visit, he called on Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin welcomed Indonesia’s successful push to join BRICS as a full member, thereby expanding the grouping, which currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to include developing nations.
Subianto’s visit could not be more timely. His latest comments on opening diplomatic relations with Israel, conditioned on the recognition of a Palestinian state, only serve to further underscore its significance. Some analysts suggest that domestic political considerations partly explain his appearance at the St Petersburg forum. They point out Indonesia’s interest in reducing its dependence on Western powers.
A New Alliance?
Indeed, Prabowo Subianto’s decision to attend the St Petersburg International Economic Forum is consistent with this wider, more geopolitical, strategy for Indonesia. He envisions a foreign policy based on “one thousand friends and zero enemies.” This narrative is meant to help diversify Indonesia’s international partnerships.
“Indonesia is working to reduce its dependence on the Americans and the Chinese, so Russia kind of offers a third way,” noted Dr. Gatra Priyandita, a political analyst. This balancing act has received much excitement – both hopeful, as Indonesia finds its footing on the global stage.
Subianto’s visit comes on the heels of ‘major developments’ between Indonesia and Russia. Just recently all three of those nations entered into a 2 billion euro (about $3.5 billion) agreement through their national sovereign funds. These agreements further demonstrate the tremendous growth of our economic relationship. Specialists such as Radityo Dharmaputra caution that Russia has historically been seen by Indonesia as an unreliable investment partner.
Domestic Political Implications
Subianto’s decision not to attend the G7 meeting hasn’t been without controversy. Some analysts argue it is primarily intended to strengthen his domestic persona as a leader while playing to nationalistic sentiments. But critics say that this is perhaps a calculated play to shore up his political capital back home. They think that last part is especially caused by the soaring perception of his foreign policy decisions.
“It’s possible that he wasn’t fully aware of the optics,” suggested Dr. Priyandita, reflecting on how Western audiences might perceive his engagement with Russia. Some argue that the decision could motivate Western countries to take Indonesia more seriously.
Dr. Priyandita continued, “I can only speculate, but I imagine him assuming that this would incentivize the West to try harder. The ramifications of Subianto’s efforts may be felt across Indo-Pacific diplomatic relations for years to come.
Gift-Giving and Diplomatic Nuances
During Subianto’s recent visit to Jakarta, he made headlines for gifting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s dog, Toto, a gift that some analysts viewed as a gesture toward strengthening bilateral relations with Australia. This decision highlights Subianto’s sophisticated and pragmatic foreign policy, which seeks to straddle commitments to Western allies and Eastern bloc nations.
“Russia is clever in giving attention to Prabowo,” remarked Dharmaputra, highlighting how such diplomatic gestures may be strategic for both nations. This surprising interplay between gift-giving and international relations shows how personal connections can influence and even transform broader political landscapes.
Indonesia has been making impressive moves on the global stage. Subianto’s actions raise questions and debate about the nation’s growing development and role in worldwide politics. The balance between engaging with traditional Western allies and exploring ties with countries like Russia will likely shape Indonesia’s future foreign policy.
