Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes former President Donald Trump to Alaska. This historic agreement in international diplomacy — dubbed the Kigali Amendment — is set to enter into force on August 15, 2025. Putin’s visit will be his first to the United States since 2015. At the time, he had just returned from attending a major United Nations summit in New York, having met with then-President Barack Obama. That next meeting comes at a moment of high geopolitical tensions, in particular around Ukraine. Further complicating the plans are rising fears of economic sanctions by the U.S. and its allies.
Putin has spoken to Trump five times on the phone already this year. In the meantime, the most recent in-person encounter between Putin and a U.S. president was in neutral Switzerland at a summit with President Joe Biden in 2021. That’s why this meeting will be addressing these key topics. One of those is the war in Ukraine, a topic on which Putin recently brought Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi completely up-to-date. Farewell visits such were the affirmations of friendship during Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s visit to Moscow. This step has alarmed European and Ukrainian authorities, who are concerned that Putin is employing just such a tactic in order to sidestep forthcoming U.S. sanctions and tariffs.
Concerns Over Sanctions and Diplomatic Maneuvers
Right now, the August 8 deadline that Trump unilaterally imposed on this process is looming large. If Putin fails to negotiate a deal, he risks serious economic sanctions. The consequences of this summit go far beyond the U.S. and Russia, shaking up the existing geopolitical order worldwide. European and Ukrainian officials express concern that Putin’s overtures could be a ploy to sidestep impending sanctions, especially given his recent threats of “secondary” tariffs or sanctions on Russia’s trading partners.
One day after the invasion, Trump took to his favorite social media platform to assert that Putin was looking for peace. He stressed the need for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to continue locking down support as negotiations begin.
“Now, President Zelenskyy has to get all of his — everything he needs, because he’s going to have to get ready to sign something. And I think he is working hard to get that done.” – Donald Trump
Ukrainian leaders, for their part, are not nearly so optimistic about the chances for a peace settlement. Zelenskyy has firmly stated that “Ukrainians will not gift their land to the occupier,” highlighting the complexities and sensitivities surrounding territorial negotiations. He went on to condemn at length Putin’s strategy, claiming that the biggest mistake made was underestimating the fortitude of the Ukrainian people.
“Putin did not believe in our people and therefore made the hopeless decision to try to take Ukraine,” – Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The Role of India-Russia Relations
The growing India-Russia partnership further complicates this diplomatic landscape. Modi’s assertion of having a “very good and detailed conversation” with Putin indicates India’s strategic interest in maintaining strong ties with Russia, even as Western nations adjust their foreign policies in response to aggression in Ukraine.
Both leaders are personally and politically committed to strengthening ties. This prospect would significantly tighten India’s embrace of Russia, particularly as western capitals are reportedly preparing to introduce even stiffer sanctions against Moscow. How might geopolitical alignments change in response to continued negotiation and friction over Ukraine after this recent development?
Implications for Global Peace Efforts
The other key meeting – between Trump and Putin – will be decisive for the future of U.S.-Russia relations. It is just as crucial for international peacebuilding efforts. Here’s the kicker—Trump was making a point that both European leaders and Putin wanted peace. As is often the case, the path towards realizing it is rocky with obstacles.
“The European leaders want to see peace. President Putin, I believe, wants to see peace. And Zelenskyy wants to see peace.” – Donald Trump
The political-economic nexus at work here indicate that any deal struck would have far-reaching implications for regional stability, and the promotion of economic ties over geostrategic rivalry. Territorial swaps or exchanges are currently being discussed extensively as another real possibility. That said, it remains to be seen how the international community and Ukrainians themselves would respond to such an idea.
