Five months into the water war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s forces have made vast inroads and are currently occupying almost one-fifth of the country. Despite ongoing calls for peace negotiations, Putin has sent a second-tier team of negotiators to Turkey, refusing to meet in person with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Putin’s absence from the negotiating table makes it all the more difficult to take seriously Russia’s commitment to any talks with Ukraine. On the ground, conditions continue to deteriorate in Tigray.
Putin’s longstanding demands include ceding territory to Russia, abandoning Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership, and establishing Ukraine as a neutral state. Yet these conditions have only deteriorated in the face of international pressure. His delegation, led by presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky, is prepared to discuss potential details of a truce and negotiate a 30-day ceasefire. Putin’s absence from these negotiations is a major step backwards, leaving an “empty chair” at the negotiating table. This absence embodies a deep chasm in any peace process.
Ongoing Control and Territorial Gains
In recent developments, Russian forces have captured two additional settlements in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, further solidifying their control over contested areas. This pattern of territorial expansion fits Putin’s strategy of keeping Kyiv under pressure. While his forces continue to invade Ukraine, the Kremlin is calling for drastic cuts to Ukraine’s military strength. They demand this as a precondition for any possible peace deal.
That’s regurgitation of an earlier statement by Putin, as has been acknowledged by his spokeswoman. She said that Ukraine is “dwindling” as a result of the continued war and lack of peace. This story plays right into Russia’s hands in this brutal, illegal war. It further serves to legitimize military campaigns that have resulted in militarized, annexed, and disputed borders.
At least the Russian delegation is in Istanbul, looking forward to the kickoff of negotiations. Putin has given no indication of when or even if he plans to return with them. All observers have acknowledged that this pattern indicates Moscow’s desire to avoid serious negotiations.
Political Commentary and International Reactions
This lack of significant advancement in peace negotiations has generated discontent from other political leaders. Former U.S. President Donald Trump remarked, “Nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together.” His comments speak to a larger doubt about the possibility for dialogue without direct engagement from Putin.
Trump further expressed hope for a resolution, stating, “I just hope Russia and Ukraine are able to do something. It has to stop.” His comments reflect the common sense of urgency that many in the international community share for a ceasefire. Doubts about whether Putin really intends to follow through remain.
Jean-Noel Barrot, a French minister, echoed similar concerns by stating, “Putin is stalling and clearly has no desire to enter these peace negotiations.” The takeaway as the perception goes, even if Moscow is willing to come to the negotiating table, concrete results are still a long way off.
The Challenge Ahead for Zelenskyy
President Zelenskyy has intensified his calls for direct dialogue with Putin, challenging him to show courage by attending negotiations in person. The more controversial part, his public statements are designed to outplay the Russian leader politically. Simultaneously, he strives to build momentum among his respective domestic and global constituencies.
This makes it even more difficult when you take into account the hardline stances of each party. Kyiv is not going to retreat. It will not cede an inch of ground, nor entertain any compromise on its aspirations for NATO membership, viewing such demands as a red line. The geopolitical and financial implications of these ongoing negotiations reach far beyond the regional borders, into the global security dynamic.
Meanwhile, Putin’s forces are tightening their noose. At the same time, his unwillingness to sit down for peace negotiations leaves little hope for a peaceful resolution. While both sides sit stubbornly unyielding in their positions, the international community keeps a watchful eye on the situation.
