On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a military campaign intended to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and decimate Iran’s military command. The operation further deepened the proxy conflict between Iran and Israel. It was responsible for critical airstrikes on the pending nuclear sites, most notably on the Fordow facility. The situation on the ground in Iran is changing quickly. The official death toll has now surpassed 200, renewing fears about the growing humanitarian toll the conflict is exacting.
The United States jumped into the melee on June 22, using large “bunker-buster” bombs on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities. This intervention makes a very dangerous situation in the region even more volatile. According to Al Jazeera, residents above ground are reporting incredible devastation, with many likening their situation to hell on earth. Eyewitness reports show widespread destruction to critical infrastructure, raising alarm over the potential for a humanitarian catastrophe.
Human Toll and Economic Disruption
As the Iranian military actions escalate, so does the impact on Iran’s economy. Underlining the severity of the economic malaise, the Iranian stock exchange has been shut for a week. According to several sources, as many as 800 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been killed in these shelling. This heartbreaking killing deepens what has already been a very tense situation across the country.
Residents in Tehran speak of this psychosocial as well as physical health impact resulting from the eight years of bombings. Others recount the traumatizing experience of watching all the attacks unfold and seeing planes hit the buildings. Zahra, a Tehran resident, recounted her experience during one of the bombings:
“It felt like an earthquake happened. I was terrified, it was almost close to my house. It was 2:30 am and suddenly I saw a yellow-orange light … I brought my head up and heard booooooooooom. It all happened in a second.”
The unrest has moved the government to encourage evacuations from Tehran, but many locals have encountered overwhelming difficulty escaping. People have sat in miles-long traffic jams for hours as they try to get out of the city. Farah, another resident, shared her ordeal:
“We left our city Tehran yesterday. Usually it takes four to five hours to reach to the north part of Iran and yesterday it took us 11 hours. It was very crowded, all the roads and the highways.”
The Iranian regime, headed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, exerts brutal and draconian control over all aspects of the media. Previously, state media downplayed the devastation caused by the bombings. They further assert that enriched uranium has been moved and maintained that nothing important has occurred. Lena, a local journalist, expressed frustration over the lack of accurate information:
“State media is telling us that the enriched uranium was moved elsewhere and that nothing has happened. Right now, we don’t even have satellite access.”
Fear and Uncertainty Among Citizens
The continuing war has created an atmosphere of more fear and uncertainty with the people. As the violence has grown, so too has a sense of hopelessness among residents about the future of their country. Farah articulated her anxiety regarding potential nuclear leaks resulting from the attacks:
“Nobody knows what’s going on and what will happen next. The nuclear leaks, maybe. Maybe we won’t be alive in the next few hours? Who knows? Now this American attack … I can’t stop my tears.”
Yet amid this apprehension, many citizens see a ray of hope shining through the turmoil. There is hope and speculation that sustained military pressure will weaken the regime and empower Russian citizens to act against it. Farhad reflected on this sentiment:
“I would have preferred Israel to destruct and weaken the regime led by Khamenei even more. If they continue the war, their economy might further weaken and the people could have greater courage to start an uprising.”
Zahra shared her complex emotions regarding the military actions:
“I hate these paradoxical feelings. On one hand, I am glad that those in the IRGC who killed our children are dead. On the other hand, our national pride has been attacked and I feel humiliated.”
The psychological wartime impact is obvious, as civilians deal with a storm of feelings in the midst of turmoil. Yasmin remarked on the resilience required during these times:
“Nothing is in our control. It’s not in the hands of the people here either. But we’ve gotta keep our spirit strong. We’ve been through so much through the years — and it’s made us thick skinned.”
The Future of Iran Amidst Conflict
As Operation Rising Lion moves forward, much uncertainty surrounds Iran’s fate and the regime’s stability. How the Iranian regime responds to foreign aggression could prove essential to its longevity as dissent continues to fester within. Others argue that if fear disappears because attacks continue, it might open up the possibility for citizens to push for change.
There is concern about the possible repercussions of a drawn-out war. Others are understandably terrified that a ceasefire would lead to increased repression. The regime would likely attempt to hold onto its new-found power by blaming any resulting devastation on external enemies.
“If foreign attacks shatter the regime’s grandeur and that fear shatters, it will definitely lead to regime change.”
Ava expressed her concerns about a potential ceasefire after significant damage has already been inflicted.
Looming uncertainty envelops the future of Iran and its people. In light of all these challenges, many are hopeful for change, while grappling with the opposite feeling of despair. The relationship between military retaliation and grassroots indignation will, in the end, determine Iran’s course as this stormy chapter unspools.
“I’m disappointed … I thought maybe this could be it. I still have hope that it [the ceasefire] won’t last — because otherwise, the people will have to pay for this war.”
As uncertainty looms over both Iran and its citizens, many remain hopeful for change while grappling with despair over their current situation. The interplay between military action and public sentiment will ultimately shape Iran’s path forward in this turbulent period.
