The conflict in Yemen has gotten more complicated. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) tenuous alliance is crumbling under new pressure as each blames the other for military backing to separatist movements. Maysaa Shuja al Deen, a Yemeni analyst and senior researcher at the Sanaa Centre for Strategic Studies, sounds a dire alarm. She worries the recent changes will prolong the war and deepen the humanitarian crisis that has plagued the country for a decade.
Since 2015, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have intervened in Yemen’s civil war, leading a coalition against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia’s new drone footage shows UN humanitarian trucks being unloaded at Mukalla Port in Yemen. They say these vehicles are part of a shipment through the Emiratis, destined for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a group fighting for independence in southern Yemen. In retaliation, the Saudi-led coalition targeted these vehicles with aerial bombardment to stop their distribution.
Saudi Arabia and UAE: A Divided Alliance
The UAE strongly denies these allegations about supplying arms to the STC. Indeed, they claim that anything they’ve done was orchestrated down to the last detail with their coalition partner in crime, Saudi Arabia. The Emirati government vigorously denied the accusations. They denied that they have coerced Yemeni actors to undertake military actions harmful to Saudi Arabia’s security.
“The UAE categorically rejects any attempt to implicate the country in tensions among Yemeni parties and strongly denounces allegations that it exerted pressure on, or issued directives to, any Yemeni party to undertake military operations that would undermine the security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia or target its borders.” – The Emirati government
This breakdown in U.S.-Saudi relations has raised some concern over the possibility of new chaos in southeastern Yemen. Elisabeth Kendall, a Yemen specialist, expressed concern about the seriousness of this conflict, stating that both nations have fundamentally different visions for Yemen’s future. The UAE has heavily supported the STC’s aspirations of establishing its own independent southern state. By contrast, Saudi Arabia supports a strong, consolidated Yemen.
“Clashes have erupted in the past, most notably in 2019, but now is the most serious clash yet. This is a very serious disagreement about how, when and if the south should break away.” – Elisabeth Kendall
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
The ongoing war has led to devastating effects on the people of Yemen, both humanitarian and environmental. Al Deen highlighted her worries about the deteriorating situation in southern Yemen, where ongoing clashes have made life increasingly precarious for civilians.
“I’m very worried about the humanitarian situation … in the south,” – Maysaa Shuja al Deen
As the war rages on, places once thought to be safe have fallen under the shadow of bloodshed. Aside from being natives of Hadramawt, Kendall and Bakari explained that like Al Mahara, Hadramawt acted as refuge points during the war. These areas offered refuge to hundreds of thousands IDPs.
“This region was safe. The Eastern governorates, Hadramawt and Al Mahara… was safe until a month ago. So now there is no place safe for the Yemenis.” – Elisabeth Kendall
According to the UN, millions more could soon face famine as humanitarian operations falter under escalating violence. The result has left countless families without any access to food or medicine, worsening an already precarious situation.
The Path Forward Remains Uncertain
Violence in Yemen has reignited. The stakes today are eerily similar to the chaos of 2015, when international engagement first peaked. Al Deen stressed that these recent changes only serve to further complicate any efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution.
“Now we return to the same square as 2015 and the people already are exhausted after one decade of a very intense war.” – Maysaa Shuja al Deen
Kendall cautioned that UAE’s expanding sway over southern Yemen could increase its grip over strategic maritime channels. This move would further aggravate the already fraught regional calculus.
“If UAE now also takes… that 1,500 kilometre stretch of coastline along the South of Yemen, that completes its grip on this geostrategically important area.” – Elisabeth Kendall
Major General Turki Al-Malki denounced these escalatory acts to be flagrant violation of international community’s efforts and resolutions to re-establish peace and security in Yemen.
“These actions are considered flagrant violations of pacification and efforts to reach a peaceful resolution.” – Major General Turki Al-Malki
