Former President Donald Trump is now bragging that U.S. air strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. He said this operation occurred on June 13 and was allegedly carried out by Israel. However, a leaked preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment challenges Trump’s claims, suggesting that the attacks only delayed Iran’s nuclear program by less than six months and did not entirely collapse its underground facilities.
The strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites came amid rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with Trump indicating that discussions regarding Iran’s nuclear program would take place next week. Now that the story is playing out, lawmakers, national security experts, and members of the defense community are still responding to these potential intelligence blunders and their costly implications.
Intelligence Assessments Raise Questions
The leaked intelligence assessment reveals that while significant damage occurred, it was not as extensive as Trump and other officials have suggested. The new report confirms that Iran’s nuclear stockpile of enriched uranium is largely unchanged. It implies that much of this material has been relocated to unknown sites. The review found that deep bunkers and other underground structures at the nuclear plants were largely unscathed.
Brigadier General Effie Defrin commented on the ongoing evaluations of the military operation, stating, “It is still early to assess the results of the operation.” Even other military officials know there is no certainty as to how much damage has been done to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Their opinions are consistent with that outlook.
“That’s the most important thing to understand — significant, very significant, substantial damage was done to a variety of different components, and we’re just learning more about it,” – an unnamed U.S. official.
Now, U.N. inspectors, under the leadership of Rafael Grossi, are calling to be allowed back to inspect Iranian sites. In light of the recent developments, Grossi has sent another letter to Iranian authorities. For that, he is calling for access to three facilities where uranium enrichment took place prior to the strikes. The importance of these inspections cannot be overstated, as without them Iran would be free to pursue its illicit nuclear program.
Iran Responds with Legislative Action
Iran’s parliament has already retaliated against the air strikes and the increasing threats to its nuclear program. Yet, they have voted in favor of a bill that would suspend all cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The conditions in this legislation are stopping the installment of intrusive surveillance cameras and additional inspection and reporting obligations to the IAEA.
According to Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of Iran’s parliament, Iran will “accelerate” its civilian nuclear program. This decision is made even in the face of mounting, sustained, international pressure. This latest step further suggests a significant intensification of Iran’s confrontation with Western powers and regional partners alarmed by its nuclear advances seems to be underway.
“During these attacks, we have seen extensive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities,” – Rafael Grossi.
The bill’s wide approval is indicative of Iran’s larger plans. It seeks to claim its own sovereignty, even while being squeezed from the outside. With robust international multilateral support, Iran would be able to maximize the peaceful benefits of its nuclear program. This action will further open the door to decreased oversight from international entities.
Trump’s Position and Future Negotiations
Even in the face of damaging contrary intelligence assessments, Trump is sticking to his guns on the success of the strikes. He painted the raid as a major victory in the fight against Iranian nuclear efforts. Trump himself called the result “total obliteration.” He claimed that Iran would not be able to conduct the kind of warfare that really challenges the U.S. for a generation.
“Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 (sic) 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” – Karoline Leavitt.
With negotiations on the horizon, the President has suggested that his administration will be in direct talks with Iran over its nuclear program next week. His approach appears focused on negotiating an agreement that could address concerns about Iran’s nuclear activities while navigating the complex geopolitical landscape.
“What they’re doing is they’re trying to make this unbelievable victory into something less,” – Donald Trump.
Israel’s military claims that it’s premature to properly assess the destruction wrought by the attacks. In tandem, defense officials from both governments are currently examining the deal’s impact on the regional security environment and broader diplomatic ties.
