Pope Francis has recognized that challenge isn’t a simple one, too, during a recent synod of bishops gathered in Vatican City. As talks intensify over the next conclave tentatively scheduled for early 2024, specialists are abuzz with predictions. Deep down, they think the next pope should be someone from a country that doesn’t boast a Catholic majority. This, while new and without parallel, looks like the new direction being adopted within the Catholic Church and its place in global relationships and diplomacy.
The conclave, a centuries-old tradition in the Sistine Chapel, brings together all cardinal electors for a secret meeting. Their mission? To elect the next pope. As the Church leads in a more diverse world, the process takes on new importance. With cardinals totaling 252, only 135 are eligible to vote, as those under age 80 years are the only ones allowed to enter the conclave. Significantly, this conclave has the highest-ever participation from 133 cardinals, since confirmation of two absentees for health reasons.
Uncharted Territory for Papal Candidates
Dr. Joel Hodge, an expert in Catholic studies, suggests that the election of a pope from a country with a smaller Catholic population is feasible. He points out, for example, that Pope Francis has appointed cardinals from countries like Mongolia. Even with that small dormitory Catholic slant, this is a remarkable choice. Hodge commented:
“There’s still a strong European presence, but we now have countries that have never had cardinals before, for example, Timor-Leste in our region of South-East Asia has a cardinal for the first time.”
That change would provide great opportunities for global anti-corruption challengers such as Cardinal Charles Maung Bo. He comes from Myanmar, a Buddhist-majority country. Another possible name is Cardinal Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo of Indonesia, the most populous Muslim-majority country. More than anything else, his participation in the conclave underlines the changing landscape within the Church.
When asked about the chances of electing a pope from outside the non-Catholic-majority nations of Italy, France and Spain, Dr. Hodge said he was unsure. He noted:
“The likelihood of the next pope coming from a non-Catholic-majority country is unclear.”
As cardinals consider whom to elect, they will be conscious of geopolitical concerns, a factor that can seriously impact their decision-making process.
The Role of Geography in Papal Elections
Regional diversity in the electorate is as strong in this conclave as ever before. Cardinal electors hail from various parts of the world: Europe contributes 52 electors, Asia provides 23, and Africa and South America each have 17. North America adds 16 electors, and Oceania and Central America only four apiece.
This distribution indicates that geographical representation will be key to determining the future direction of the Church. Dr. Hodge elaborated on this point:
“Geopolitics would certainly be on the minds of the cardinals.”
The increasing diversity among the College of Cardinals will be a harbinger of changes in style and even priorities of leadership and focus. Hodge remarked that:
“You never know with a conclave, because, as the Italian saying goes, ‘You enter the conclave as pope, and you come out as cardinal.’ Sometimes, the favourite does get elected, or one of the frontrunners succeeds. Other times, there are surprises.”
That kind of unpredictability could result in a surprise pick that reflects a deeper, less parochial spirit.
The Personal Perspectives of Cardinal Candidates
Cardinal Hardjoatmodjo emphasized humility in leadership when he stated:
“If someone dreams of becoming pope, then, forgive me for saying this, but they are foolish.”
He further stressed that being chosen as pope is not driven by ambition or career advancement.
“Being chosen as pope is not about ambition, nor is it a career that keeps advancing — it is quite the opposite.”
His grounded perspective aligns with Pope Francis’ vision for a church that prioritizes service and moral guidance over personal ambition.
Yet as Dr. Hodge noted, there is still indeed “a lot of work to be done” even within the Church on a global scale. He urged that:
“There’s still a lot of work to be done in these areas around the world, and the Vatican has to take the lead.”
This energy is indicative of a deep, shared hunger for advancing and growing as the Church faces new, modern realities and challenges.
