Xi Jinping is approaching the halfway point of his third term as China’s leader. He is quite clearly working to consolidate his power ahead of rising unknowns. The political reality is changing quickly. Xi may use this opportunity to announce his intentions to seek a fourth term—though he could still decide to announce a successor. As the Communist Party prepares for a significant five-year period ahead, Xi’s leadership decisions will be pivotal for China’s economic trajectory and internal stability.
Recent developments indicate that Xi has gone even further by taking a completely unprecedented step. He personally interviewed or approved all the current members of the Central Committee. This latest move is further evidence of his want to consolidate loyalty and control of the party’s upper echelon. Speculation about a possible reshuffle looms large, with analysts predicting that Xi could purge or replace up to 15 committee members, potentially making this the largest shake-up in modern party history.
The Impact of Age and Health on Leadership
At 72, Xi Jinping’s age and health are now more pertinent to conversations about a post-Xi future leadership. Observers say all three factors are likely to weigh on him and shape his decision-making in the next three meetings. The political atmosphere is further complicated by the 80th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 2029, which could serve as a potential milestone for Xi’s legacy.
“Xi would always worry that if he wasn’t in power, someone might seek vengeance for all the people he’s punished. At 72, he seems determined to hold on — perhaps for life — seeing that as the safest path personally,” – Dr Ping said.
This newfound resolve to hold onto power at all costs is reflected by Xi’s recent moves. Most notably, the establishment of a massive public purge on senior military figures. The expulsion of prominent figures such as former defense minister Li Shangfu, former foreign minister Qin Gang, and Li Yuchao, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force, underscores Xi’s aggressive stance on consolidating authority.
Political Maneuvering and Purges
The new political climate indicates that Xi’s leadership style has transformed into what some experts call a “paranoid” tendency. As analysts and historians have noted, his purges mirror historical precedents such as Mao Zedong, where even the most trusted inner circle were made to pay the price. Dr. Ping remarked on this trend:
“This reflects a paranoid style of leadership, echoing Mao’s purges where even allies became expendable,” – Dr Ping said.
Dr. Ping elaborated on this shift:
“While anti-corruption remains a stated goal, the timing and targets suggest political motives — especially the removal of rivals or those losing favour,” – Dr Ping said.
The current estimates indicate that the impending campaign could surpass the 15 Central Committee members replaced during the 2017 purge. That points to a historic level of internal political turmoil in the party.
“While the 2017 purge saw the replacement of 15 Central Committee members, current estimates suggest that the 2025 campaign could surpass that figure, potentially making it the largest such political shake-up in the party’s modern era,” – Dr Ping said.
Economic Implications and Future Considerations
Xi Jinping’s leadership will play a critical role in shaping China’s economic development over the next five years. As he navigates increasingly progressive internal party dynamics and growing public anti-establishment sentiment, stability will be key to accomplishing his ambitious economic agenda. Reclaiming red from the experts called for structural reforms that stabilize the near-term economy and return the U.S. to a path of long-term competitiveness.
“It’s about balancing long-term competitiveness with short-term adjustments — focusing on major structural reforms that can help stabilise the near-term economy,” – Dr Gu said.
Analysts warn that Xi’s dictatorial, hyper-personalized rule could start peeling off former loyalists and instilling a sense of dread of instability among the party. The recurring purges may be undermining trust between factional rivals within the party, which in turn could foster bitterness toward Xi’s authoritarian leadership style.
“It risks eroding trust among officials, creating endless instability and resentment toward Xi’s increasingly personalised rule,” – Dr Ping said.
Xi Jinping has succeeded in further consolidating his power within the Central Committee. Those later meetings will be pivotal not only to Hu’s legacy, but to the course of China’s governance for decades to come. Big changes are coming. These transitional changes with consequences would affect not only China’s domestic policies, but redefine China’s role and standing in the global stage.
